With typically impeccable timing, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to pad out the Best Picture Oscar category to include ten nominees in a year when I was hard-pressed to find a single four-star movie. Last year, people were up-in-arms over the exclusion of "The Dark Knight" from the Best Picture race (and rightfully so). But that snub was only amplified by the fact that other, less-qualified, movies were included ("The Reader" for Best Picture? I'm still hurting from that one). Expanding the category isn't the solution; making better movies is.
As is often the case, the latter half of December showed some quality this year ("Up in the Air", for example), but prior to that, 2009 was a wasteland - or, perhaps more appropriately, a post-apocalyptic wasteland. There were glimmers of greatness sprinkled throughout ("I Love You, Man", "The Hurt Locker", even the "Star Trek" reboot), but for the most part 2009 may be remembered for being not very memorable.
Had the Best Picture category stayed with five nominees, it's pretty clear which contenders would have been "snubbed" this time around ("The Blind Side", I'm looking in your direction). But before we get to that, let's look at the other categories. As usual, my picks are in italics.
See how my Oscar predictions pan out when the 82nd Annual Academy Awards broadcasts live on ABC, Sunday March 7, 2010 at 8pm EST.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"
This one comes down to two favorites: Bridges and Clooney. Both gave performances that mark career highs. Clooney has never been more, well, Clooney. And it's that naturalism that will cost him the little gold man this time around; audiences already see George as the perennial bachelor, jetting around and picking up women in bars. This movie just played into that - and beautifully. It was great to see, but he's got more in him in the future. Jeff Bridges, meanwhile, has rarely been better - and that's really saying something for an actor who has been reliably great for almost 40 years. Starman, Tucker, The Fabulous Baker Boys, to say nothing of The freakin' Dude. But in Bad Blake, Bridges tapped into something primal in himself, something we haven't seen before. It was pure gold on screen. And it is sure to be the same for the actor himself.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
Not of ton of competition here. Loyal readers will understand that I can't resist the following: with his stellar performance in "Basterds", Christoph is going to Waltz away with this one. Thank you for your understanding.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"
This is one of those who should vs. who will categories. Gabourey Sidibe is thoroughly heartbreaking, without being cloying or manipulative in "Precious". Out of the five, hers is the most unforgettable performance of the year. But, yeah, they're going to give it to Sandra Bullock. And, look, I like Sandra. I like that she's not afraid to put herself out there and get messy for a performance. Plus, she just seems really sweet. But as the ultra-alpha-perfect-white-savior mom in this glorified Hallmark classic, I found myself thinking longingly of "Speed 2: Cruise Control". And that doesn't happen often. Still, Oscar has a history of rewarding this type of performance in this category ("Erin Brockovich", anyone?). So, it'll go to her.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Penélope Cruz, "Nine"
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Not of ton of competition here either. Cruz doesn't stand a chance, while Gyllenhaal - good as she is - and Kendrick seem more like padding. Farmiga was solid but not stand-out. Since Gabby isn't going to win for "Precious", Mo'Nique should get this - and happily, she completely deserves it. Not just for fully overshadowing her already larger-than-life public persona, but for turning in a deeply effective and affecting portrait of a desperately unhappy woman.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
"Coraline", Henry Selick
"Fantastic Mr. Fox", Wes Anderson
"The Princess and the Frog", John Musker and Ron Clements
"The Secret of Kells", Tomm Moore
"Up", Pete Docter
So, Academy, you have ten slots in the Best Picture category, and you wisely included "Up". Then you also put it here. Huh? It doesn't stand a chance at Best Picture, but it should float away with this one.
ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
"Avatar"
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
"Nine"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"The Young Victoria"
Here's where "Avatar" should start to creep into the running. Art Direction? No contest.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Avatar"
"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"The White Ribbon"
The Academy will have a tough time understanding how to grade the CG in "Avatar" as Cinematography, so they'll stick with the more traditional "Hurt Locker". Works for me.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
"Bright Star"
"Coco Before Chanel"
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
"Nine"
"The Young Victoria"
The three costume dramas in this category ("Star", "Coco" and "Victoria") may split the vote, leaving "Nine" to walk away with this one.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Burma VJ"
"The Cove"
"Food, Inc."
"The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers"
"Which Way Home"
I'd be happy with "The Cove" or "Food, Inc" getting this one, though neither is a particularly well-made documentary. Voters may have found "Food, Inc" too close to home, but everyone can get behind saving dolphins. So let's give it to "The Cove".
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
This one should stymie the voters just like Cinematography. So, again, "Hurt Locker".
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
"Il Divo"
"Star Trek"
"The Young Victoria"
Is there any chance "Star Trek" will win an Oscar? I'm going to hope for this one.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
"Avatar", James Horner
"Fantastic Mr. Fox", Alexandre Desplat
"The Hurt Locker", Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
"Sherlock Holmes", Hans Zimmer
"Up", Michael Giacchino
I'm a long-time James Horner fan, so I'm going to give it to him.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog"
"Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess and the Frog"
"Loin de Paname" from "Paris 36"
"Take It All" from "Nine"
"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart"
Quick, hum a few notes from any of these. Didn't think so. Let's go for "Crazy Heart".
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Star Trek"
"Up"
The two sound awards could be shared between "Avatar" and "Locker". I'm going to say the latter gets this one...
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Star Trek"
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"
...and "Avatar" gets this.
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"Star Trek"
Duh. In the future, this award might be called "Avatar".
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"District 9", Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
"An Education", Screenplay by Nick Hornby
"In the Loop", Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire", Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
"Up in the Air", Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
It's down to "Precious" and my favorite of the year. So guess which way I'm going.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"The Hurt Locker", Written by Mark Boal
"Inglourious Basterds", Written by Quentin Tarantino
"The Messenger", Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
"A Serious Man", Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Up", Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Here's where we come down to it. The Tarantino fans will be upset but, let's face it, "Basterds" was an unwieldy mess of a script that would never have been made if it didn't spill from the MacBook of QT. Yes, there were a few great sequences in it, but it wasn't exactly a "glourious" achievement. Give this to "Locker".
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
"Avatar", James Cameron
"The Hurt Locker", Kathryn Bigelow
"Inglourious Basterds", Quentin Tarantino
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire", Lee Daniels
"Up in the Air", Jason Reitman
Now we're down to the true horse race: Best Directing and Best Picture. With "Locker" and "Avatar" everyone else is playing for third-place. This one's actually too close to call, but my vote would be to give this one to Cameron. There's no way to say that "Avatar" isn't an achievement in directing. Of course, if Bigelow gets it, that works for me too.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"
The best motion picture of the year? For me, it was "Up in the Air", but that one's too small to win. "Avatar" may actually be too big to win - and it's already been shut out of this category at many of the major industry awards. Plus, ever notice when you ask someone what they thought of "Avatar" they say "well, visually, it was great"? Yep. "Up" will win Animation, so that's out. "District 9", "The Blind Side", "An Education" and "A Serious Man" are in the "we're just happy this category got expanded" file. "Basterds", no. "Precious", great but flawed. My pick: "Hurt Locker".
