It looks like 2012 will not be the year of the HDTV -- again. According to a new report by NPD DisplaySearch, worldwide TV shipments should be pretty flat for the second year in a row. However, there does seem to be a slight bright spot.
The report says that despite a slump in overall TV shipments, the LCD TV market is still growing because it's scooping up the dwindling shares from both CRT and plasma technologies. LED, in particular, will increase to 70.1 percent this year, compared to 45.3 percent in 2011.
According to NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, the LCD category will account for more than 88.5 percent of the total TV shipments around the world this year. This number is up from 82.5 percent last year, and is expected to rise to 90 percent by 2013. That means LCD TV shipments will grow 7 percent this year, for a total of 220 million units. That number is expected to rise to 241 million in 2013.
The LED jump is due to new low-cost direct-LED backlight models, which now have smaller premiums over CCFL backlit models. Those direct-lit LED models are still slightly bulkier than edge-lit LEDs, but the low price will attract the most price-conscious consumers. According to NPD DisplaySearch, however, about five times as many edge-lit LEDs will ship this year, which means we should see those prices drop later this year.
In some surprising news, 3D will also see a little bump in 2012, thanks to growing popularity in regions outside of North America. NPD DisplaySearch says that 3D should see a whopping 90 percent increase this year, for a total of 46 million units. The report does expect North America to be the leading 3D shipment region by 2014, with 3D becoming a standard feature on screen sizes above 40 inches.
So now for some bad news -- for plasma manufacturers, anyway. Plasma TVs are expected to fall 24 percent this year, to 13.1 million units. That means that plasmas will account for just 5.3 percent of the TVs for 2012, after a 7.4 percent peak in 2010.
The latest TV technology, OLED, will make a small splash this year, with large sizes accounting for just 50,000 of the total TV shipments for 2012.
NPD DisplaySearch also says that consumers will continue to seek out bigger HDTVs, with the average 2012 screen size clocking in at 35 inches. Four years ago, the average was about 30 inches. The growing number of LCD panel factories has translated into lower prices. In turn, it also encourages existing HDTV owners to trade up a size.
"Consumers are continuing to spend cautiously in developed regions, especially in countries with high rates of flat panel TV penetration, so price differences can have a strong impact and LCD is expected to continue narrowing the price gap with plasma," noted Paul Gagnon, NPD DisplaySearch's director of North America TV research. Gagnon added, "In addition, many brands are taking a more conservative approach, focusing on profits over volume at all costs, so the rate of price erosion is not expected to be as strong as in previous years, which may have some impact on demand."
The DisplaySearch Q1'12 Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report features panel and TV shipments by region and by size for nearly 60 brands, as well as rolling 16-quarter forecasts, TV cost/price forecasts, and design wins.
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