It was a good ride while it lasted. We are used to seeing HDTV sales skyrocket over the past few years. However, 2011 will see a bit of a slowdown, according to the latest DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report.
The good news is that, in 2010, the total TV shipments grew by 18 percent to 248 million units. Flat-panel TVs alone grew to 32 percent. However, that growth is expected to slow down to just 12 percent this year -- in some regions more than others.
Overall, China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa will see the strongest flat-panel TV growth over the next four years, averaging about 17 percent of growth each year. DisplaySearch says that developed regions such as North America, Japan, and Western Europe, will see no growth over the same time period.
The slowdown in Japan, in particular, has a lot to do with the end of that government's "eco-points" system. The incentive program, which first began in June 2009, rewarded consumers of eco-friendly purchases with gift vouchers that could be redeemed for other goods and services. Of course, earthquake and tsunami aftermath could also be a factor as production of flat panel TVs in Japan has been negatively impacted by the disaster.
"As the household installed base for flat-panel TVs increases above 50-60 percent, the growth rate slows, which is currently the situation in Japan, Western Europe, and North America," said Paul Gagnon, director of North America TV Research for DisplaySearch. "Emerging markets, however, are still ripe for sustained growth due to a low level of household flat panel TV penetration."
According to the announcement, "The total TV market is increasingly defined by the replacement of CRT TVs with flat panel TVs, especially in emerging markets, as growth begins to slow for many developed countries that have strongly adopted flat panel TVs already."
LCD TVs continue to be the number one TV type shipped around the world, and are expected to account for 84 percent of the total TV shipments in 2011. Within the LCD category, we will see about a 13-percent increase, which translates into 217 million units for 2011. That number is expected to climb to 270 million by 2014.
About 50 percent of those LCD TVs will be LED TVs. LED is penetrating the LCD category, especially in TV sizes over 40 inches. Typically, the bigger the screen, the more features. This includes LED lighting, as well as higher frame rates and 1080p resolution. About a quarter of the LCD TVs shipping in 2011 will have refresh rates of 120Hz and higher. However, for TVs over 40 inches, that number jumps to more than 60 percent.
Plasma actually enjoyed a major uptick in 2010, with a whopping 30 percent growth over the previous year. This compares to a 1.5% decrease in 2009 compared to 2008. What explains this sharp improvement? One important factor is pricing. Plasma prices were down more than LED or LCD TV prices, making them a prime pick for budget-challenged consumers looking for a good bargain. DisplaySearch predicts that plasma's growth rate will slow down in the first quarter of this year, only to decline even further in the second half of the year, as LCD regains share of TV sizes below 50 inches.
The big winner this year will be 3D TV. DisplaySearch says that 3D accounted for about 10 percent of global TV sales in the fourth quarter of 2010, and will account for 30 percent of the LCD TVs sold this year. However, those numbers will jump 50 percent, as it becomes a standard feature, and the firm predicts about 100 million total 3D units to ship by 2014.
The DisplaySearch Q4'10 Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report covers panel and TV shipments by region and size for nearly 60 brands. It also includes rolling 16-quarter forecasts, TV cost/price forecasts, and design wins.
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