It's that time of year when Hollywood congratulates itself and fawns all over each other. As usual, there are rules to who wins. That's why they are not that difficult to predict. There might be an upset or two in the primary categories, but don't count on it.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
The best performance of the year didn't even get a nomination. David Oyelowo's portrayal of MLK in Selma was the best, but it's Keaton versus Redmayne. Keaton is the feel-good story of a Hollywood star re-ascending. Redmayne plays Stephen Hawking. Hawking is confined to a wheelchair and Hollywood loves handicapped people being portrayed in their films, so I'll go with Redmayne.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
J. K. Simmons deserves it and he will win.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Ms. Moore's Alice has early onset Alzheimer's. That plus her not having won before makes her the winner.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into The Woods
Everyone says it's Patricia Arquette. She was good and none of the others look like they have a chance.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
The Dragon breathes fire again.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
A rare category where all of the nominees were excellent, in my opinion. A slight lean towards Birdman, with The Grand Budapest Hotel having a good shot, too.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel is almost a lock to check in here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga
Citizenfour is very well done and the topic fits in the wheelhouse of what Hollywood loves to honor, so it should prevail. The Salt of the Earth has some of the best photography one could ever hope to see, though.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Boyhood took 12 years to make, so I guess that means it will win, but American Sniper deserves it.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game, Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar, Hans Zimmer
Mr. Turner, Gary Yershon
The Theory of Everything, Johann Johannsson
I have no opinion, but my well-connected friend assures me that The Theory of Everything will take it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Everything is Awesome, The Lego Movie
Glory, Selma
Grateful, Beyond The Lights
I'm Not Gonna Miss You, Glen Campbell..I'll Be Me
Lost Stars, Begin Again
Looks like this is where the Academy tosses a bone to Selma, but Glen Campbell might get a sympathy vote.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
American Sniper hits this mark.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
The Imitation Game snares it because it's truly a great story.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Another score for the Grand Hotel.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Birdman, Alejandro González Iñárritu
Boyhood Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher Bennett Miller
The Grand Budapest Hotel Wes Anderson
The Imitation Game Morten Tyldum
Tough call between Birdman and Boyhood, with Anderson having an outside chance of sneaking through. I will opt for Iñárritu, but Linklater would not be a shocker.
BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Selma is the best picture but it can't win because last year's 12 Years a Slave took home the grand prize and that one didn't deserve it. What a shame. The fight is between Boyhood and Birdman unless The Grand Budapest Hotel somehow sneaks in. Since Selma can't win, I am rooting for Birdman but I fear that the winner will be Boyhood, a truly overrated gimmick film.
