Big Picture Big Sound

[Note: The opinions expressed here represent those of the writer, not Big Picture Big Sound. Feel free to share your opinions directly with Mr. Kempler via e-mail. The best of these may be published on this site as feedback]

The only people that should care about who or what wins the Oscars are the ones who can actually get a monetary gain out of the results. This means studio honchos who know that Oscars mean more movie tickets and/or DVDs sold, actors looking to bump up their pay scales for future films, and those that bet on the results in office pools. Anyone else who cares is a loser (keep in mind that I used to be one of those people and no one is a bigger loser than I used to be).

The key to figuring out the winners is usually quite simple. Most years have a theme running through them. This year is no different. This is the "Year of the Gay." With "Brokeback Mountain" leading the coming-out party and Philip Seymour Hoffman traipsing off to his first Oscar, the theme is clear. So, if you want to win your office pool, understand this going in.

Side note: This year's Honorary Award goes to Robert Altman, who I've never thought was all that special. As far as I know Altman is not seriously ill but folks who receive this award are usually not long for this world. But dead pools are an entirely different matter...

Below you will see the categories for the 2005 Oscars and a number in front of each choice. These numbers indicate where I believe they will finish in the voting. In each category, whoever receives a "1" will win. But to hedge my bets (and conform to the standard Oscar Pool rules), I've noted alternate choices in order of most likely win. A "5" has not a chance of winning unless aliens have abducted all of the Academy voters. Again.

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And without further ado...

Best Picture:

1. Brokeback Mountain
   
2. Crash
   
3. Capote
   
4. Good Night, and Good Luck
   
5. Munich

An absolute no-brainer. If you can find someone who disagrees, bet them whatever you can beg, borrow or steal. Who actually deserves to win is another issue.

Best Actor:

1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
   
2. David Strathaim, Good Night, and Good Luck
   
3. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
   
4. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
   
5. Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

No-brainer (Part 2). Hoffman proved he deserved to be held in the same esteem as the other living greats like DeNiro and Pacino when he made "Happiness." Everybody else has finally figured it out.

Best Actress:

1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
   
2. Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
   
3. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
   
4. Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
   
5. Charlize Theron, North Country

This is a tough one. That said, I believe that only Huffman and Witherspoon have a chance. Theron has her Oscar. Knightley is the new pretty face. No one saw Ms. Dench's performance. So what if it was far better than anyone else's performance in this category? Since reality has nothing to do with the winners, it really doesn't matter. The angle for Huffman is the year of the Gay theme but I'm not sure if enough people saw Transamerica. Witherspoon's angle is that she is the thoroughly ordinary actress in the "hot death of a celebrity" film. An agonizing nod to Witherspoon.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. George Clooney, Syriana
   
2. Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
   
3. Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
   
4. Matt Dillon, Crash
   
5. William Hurt, A History of Violence

Gyllenhaal remains a possibility because of this year's theme even though in truth he shouldn't even be nominated. Giamatti deserves it but it opened early in the year and is possibly forgotten. Hurt and Dillon don't figure to get much play. My sources tell me that Hollywood is ready to throw some kudos at Mr. Clooney. His politics fit the town perfectly and he has aged a bit out of pretty boy mode and into respected actor territory.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Junebug
   
2. Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
   
3. Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
   
4. Catherine Keener, Capote
   
5. Frances McDormand, North Country

Amy Adams flat out deserves this. She took a useless waste of time movie and with her acting elevated it to worth seeing. I don't know if enough members of the Academy saw it but if they did, she's your race winner.

Best Director:

1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
   
2. Paul Haggis, Crash
   
3. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
   
4. Bennett Miller, Capote
   
5. Steven Spielberg, Munich

Quite simply, Ang Lee can't lose.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
   
2. Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Crash
   
3. George Clooney & Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
   
4. Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
   
5. Woody Allen, Match Point

I'm sticking my neck out here and going with "The Squid and the Whale." It may be my heart overruling my head but I can't help it. The writing is far superior to the other nominees.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Larry McMurty and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
   
2. Josh Olson, A History of Violence
   
3. Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
   
4. Dan Futterman, Capote
   
5. Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

Hard to imagine "Brokeback Mountain" losing even though it doesn't deserve it. My vote would go to "A History of Violence" if I desired to lose.

Best Cinematography:

1. Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck
   
2. Dion Beebe, Memoirs of A Geisha
   
3. Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain
   
4. Emmanuel Lubezki, The New World
   
5. Wally Pfister, Batman Begins

"Good Night and Good Luck" is a beautiful looking movie. It has the look of an art film. The guess here is that this may be enough to capture the prize.

Best Art Direction:

1. Jim Bissell and Jan Pascale, Good Night, and Good Luck
   
2. John Myhre and Gretchen Rau, Memoirs of A Geisha
   
3. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Pride & Prejudice
   
4. Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
   
5. Grant Major, Dan Hennah, and Simon Bright, King Kong

Two horse race between "Good Night" and "Geisha" with the final vote going to Clooney's film. Memoirs is a great looking piece but oh, does it stink like 5 day old kimchi!

Best Foreign Film:

1. Paradise Now (Palestine)
   
2. Tsotsi (South Africa)
   
3. Sophie Scholl - Final Days (Germany)
   
4. Joyeux Noel (France)
   
5. Don't Tell (Italy)

Maybe the most fascinating category. "Paradise Now" looks like it might win and if it does it will be interesting to see the audience reaction because of its (for the most part) pro-Palestinian stance.

Best Documentary Feature:

1. March of the Penguins
   
2. Darwin's Nightmare
   
3. Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
   
4. Street Fight
   
5. Murderball

And the winner is ..."Grizzly Man!" Every year Oscar royally screws something up. Not nominating "Grizzly Man" is a crime. Since it isn't here we'll go with everyone's darling, the cutsey-wutsey penguins.

Best Animated Feature Film:

1. WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT
2. TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE
3. HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE

The Academy loves Nick Park and the whole damn "Wallace and Gromit" franchise, as evidenced by past Oscars to the duo's animated shorts. It doesn't hurt that the company's studios burned to the ground late last year giving these guys the sympathy vote too. Vote on the bunny if you know what's good for you.

Best Original Song:

1. "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW


2. "Travelin' Thru" - TRANSAMERICA
3. "In the Deep" - CRASH

Again, going against the "Gay" theme, I've gotta go with the pimp instead. Terrence Howard acted his ass off, but he ain't gonna beat Hoffman, so this is the Academy relieving itself of its collective guilty conscience. Plus the film has a hardcore following that will prevail in at least one category. In this case, bet on black.

Film Editing:

1. Hughes Winborne, Crash
   
2. Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener
   
3. Michael McCusker, Walk the Line
   
4. Michael Kahn, Munich
   
5. Mike Hill & Dan Hanley, Cinderella Man

"Crash" has to win something so maybe this is it. Similar sentiments for "The Constant Gardener" but let's bet on the L.A. based story.

Costume Design:

1. Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of A Geisha
   
2. Jacqueline Durran, Pride & Prejudice
   
3. Gabriela Pescucci, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
   
4. Sandy Powell, Mrs. Henderson Presents
   
5. Arianne Phillips, Walk the Line

Yeah, the movie sucked eggs. However, it was a visual feast and the costumes were great in this stinker.

Best Sound Mixing:

1. War of the Worlds
   
2. Walk the Line
   
3. King Kong
   
4. Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
   
5. Memoirs of A Geisha

I have an "in" here (we'll see how good it is) so just take Spielberg's otherwise disastrous pic for the stellar quality of its sound mixing.

Best Original Score

1. Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain
   
2. Alberto Iglesias, The Constant Gardener
   
3. John Williams, Memories of A Geisha
   
4. Dario Marianelli, Pride & Prejudice
   
5. John Williams, Munich

I couldn't stand anything about this movie and if it were up to me there would be zero nominations. Therefore it will win this category too.

If you use my advice and it nets you the big prize in your game, you are welcome to tell everyone you know what a genius I am. But I'd prefer you just send me my vig and be done with it. I accept Paypal was well as cash gifts. If these picks stink, then hey, you get what you pay for.

So, how'd Dave do? Check out our real time Oscar winners results to find out!