It's Oscars season again and, in my not-so-humble-opinion, this has been an exceedingly weak year. Achievements and performances will be rewarded by what seems like a process of elimination in far too many categories. Granted, the Oscars never really showcase the best achievements in film-making, but rather an odd mix of critical acclaim and box office receipts. It's rare when the really outstanding moments of cinema are honored. This year promises to be no different.
The following analysis and picks are not based on any sort of reality check on what constitutes "quality," nor are many of these my personal choices on what should win. It's merely a prognostication of how I think the Academy will vote. Nothing more. Nothing less.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
I've always regarded DiCaprio as a pretty boy who can't act. Then he roars through a role in 2006 that makes me think twice. Oddly, it's not his performance in "Blood Diamond" but rather his performance in "The Departed" that had me at "hello." His performance in "Blood Diamond" is overrated, and that's being kind. Gosling does a bang up job in "Half Nelson." To me it's the best performance in this group but you don't know three people who even saw the movie (including me), so forget it.
O'Toole is sadly incoherent in his press tour for "Venus." He is either nominated because they couldn't find anyone else worth supporting or he is dying and it is not yet public information. I'm guessing it's the former so he's out. Smith is in an after-school movie of the week special that manipulates the audience even more than Spielberg at his most manipulative. No shot. Then we have Forest Whitaker as Idi "The Insane One" Amin. Whitaker is way over the top which means he might be underplaying the truly demented Amin but he does good work here.
Whitaker will win. He's a great actor and this is the sort of role Hollywood voters love. You can bet the rent money on this one.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"
Arkin is his usual magnificent self. Unfortunately for him the Academy pays little mind to happy, funny, thoughtful movies like "Little Miss Sunshine." Voters like to feel they are making important life-enhancing decisions and these performances almost never get honored. Jackie Earle Haley turns in an ordinary performance in a thoroughly ordinary movie that is among the year's most overly hyped. Wahlberg's nomination is comical since his work is probably the weakest in the cast. Hounsou is serviceable in "Blood Diamond" but not much more.
It wouldn't be a complete shock to see Arkin cop this but Murphy will probably win for his nice turn as James "Thunder" Early. It's solid acting without a noticeable weakness which should be enough to eclipse this mostly non-descript group.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
I've said it before and I'll repeat it here. Judi Dench could play just about any role and I'd vote for giving her an Oscar. Her work in "Notes on a Scandal" provides more evidence of why there is no finer actor alive today. The movie should also have received a Best Picture nomination but it didn't happen. However, Ms. Dench finds herself standing in front of the runaway juggernaut of Helen Mirren in "The Queen." Mirren is the most golden of all locks to bring Oscar home. It's not that she doesn't deserve it. She does. I just prefer Dench's role. Lost in the confusion are two more great performances, by Streep and Cruz, respectively. Both are flawless. How did Winslet get a nod for this? Because she got naked? Anyway, this is the strongest group of any of the categories and aside from Winslet I could not quarrel with any of the rest winning.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
Adriana Bazzara has the misfortune of being in the worst "great" movie to come around in quite some time. Okay, you're right. There's at least one fake great movie every year. Blanchett is excellent in "Notes on a Scandal" but it was really the "Judi Dench Show." Abigail Breslin is the adorable cutesy-wutesy little girl who has not a flicker of a chance. Jennifer Hudson is the "now" actress and she deserves it. Rinko Kikuchi is the best part of "Babel" which isn't that hard to be.
My pick: Hudson by a wide margin.
ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
"Dreamgirls"
"The Good Shepherd"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
"The Prestige"
Hard to picture "Pan" not winning this but this is one of those categories that often takes the public by surprise. Tread carefully.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Black Dahlia"
"Children of Men"
"The Illusionist"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"The Prestige"
I don't have a clue on this one, so I'll hope for magical intervention and take a flyer on "The Illusionist".
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
"Curse of the Golden Flower"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Marie Antoinette"
"The Queen"
Of the ones I saw none stand out. Since I didn't see the "Curse of the Golden Flower" I'll assume that it looked good. So that gets my vote.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"Children of Men"
"The Departed"
"United 93"
"Babel" may be garbage but it is very well-edited garbage.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
"Apocalypto"
"Click"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
I'm rooting for "Apocalypto" so I can watch all of the Hollywood phonies applaud the "persecuted" Gibson.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
"Babel"
"The Good German"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"The Queen"
If I were you I'd roll the dice here. My inside source is telling me that it will be "Babel" and if my source hopes to retain this very lofty position in my life, they had better be right.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
"I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth", Melissa Etheridge
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls", Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler and Anne Preven
"Love You I Do" from "Dreamgirls", Henry Krieger and Siedah Garrett
"Our Town" from "Cars", Randy Newman
"Patience" from "Dreamgirls", Henry Krieger and Willie Reale
Oscar adores Randy Newman but I've got a feeling it's Melissa Etheridge.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
"Apocalypto"
"Blood Diamond"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Sound Editing and war is a natural fit and it works best in "Letters From Iwo Jima".
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
"Apocalypto"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Two horse race between "Dreamgirls" and "Blood Diamond". Diamond is mixed incredibly loudly, always a plus here, but voters tend to like music in this category so it's got to be "Dreamgirls".
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
"Poseidon"
"Superman Returns"
Unlike my esteemed colleague, Mr. Lozito, I hated "Superman Returns" and to reward it with anything is criminal. I'll go with the otherwise horrid "Poseidon."
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
"Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"
"Cars" speeds by the competition.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Deliver Us From Evil"
"An Inconvenient Truth"
"Iraq in Fragments"
"Jesus Camp"
"My Country, My Country."
Cardboard cutout Al Gore preaching at the Awards to people who don't know the difference between global warming and cottage cheese will be fun.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
"After the Wedding"
"Days of Glory (Indigenes)"
"The Lives of Others"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Water"
Pan's Labyrinth can't lose.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
"Children of Men"
"The Departed"
"Little Children"
"Notes on a Scandal"
While I'd love to see "Borat" win, technically it's not even an adapted Screenplay. The award goes to either "The Departed" or "Notes on a Scandal". I'll go with Scorsese's film.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Babel"
"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"The Queen"
Another two horse race, with "Iwo Jima" edging out "Sunshine."
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
Scorsese will probably win even though the movie is good but not great. "Iwo Jima" and "United 93" are both better but it's time to throw one at the fellow who has shown us greatness even though it may not have been true in 2006.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
What we have here are two excellent movies ("Iwo Jima" and "Sunshine"), two good movies ("Departed" and "The Queen") and the pretentious roadkill known as "Babel".
I would really get a kick out of "Little Miss Sunshine" winning but Oscar detests happy films. "Letters From Iwo Jima" could certainly win and I wouldn't object. However, these awards seem to be primed to award Mr. Scorsese as a sort of informal Lifetime Achievement Award. The Academy asks for forgiveness and gives the man who should have already won twice ("Goodfellas" and "Raging Bull") the Oscar and everyone pats themselves on their own back.
More information and details available on Oscar.com.
