It's Oscar time again, which means millions of people will tune in this weekend to see if their favorite movies take home the gold. And thousands of people will participate in Oscar pools to see if they themselves can bring home some gold. If you need some suggestions on what to pick for winner for the best of 2013, then check out my predictions below.
A lot of intriguing threads are running through this year's Oscar nominees. Will America embrace the first film about the real brutalities of slavery? Does a special-effects laden extravaganza have enough of anything else to rise to the top? Will DiCaprio finally break through and win instead of just getting the "honor" of another nomination? Will a backlash against Woody Allen cost Cate Blanchett, who was once considered a shoo-in for Best Actress? Will the multi-nominated and incredibly overrated "American Hustle" win anything big?
These questions will all get answered in a few days. I have my idea on how this will all play out but I see two possible scenarios. The first sees "12 Years a Slave" mowing down the competition. The other scenario shows the awards being scattered all over the place. Because I am a coward, I will attempt to split the difference. My picksare in bold.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Four great performances and Christian Bale's toupee and belly. I could not complain about any of the four winning. A weak vote in a strong field for McConaughey, but I would smile if Dern got it. If Ejiofor wins, it will be "12 Years a Slave" all night long.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Throw out Hill and Cooper. Abdi is intriguing, but it would be a shocker. If it is the year of the slave, then it's Fassbender, who actually was the best part of the film, in my opinion. But I am going with Leto, partially because of his performance and partially because the voters seem to like these types of roles, even though a best actor and best supporting actor coming from the same film is not a common occurrence.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
When I saw "Blue Jasmine" many months ago, I declared Ms. Blanchett the winner. My opinion has not changed. The only question is whether the scandals swirling around Woody might change the outcome. All five ladies deserved their nominations, but Cate gave the performance of a career.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I think this was the best performance Julia Roberts has ever given, but that still falls short of most of her competition. I don't understand the nomination of Jennifer Lawrence. She was okay, but I don't understand anything about the praise of "American Hustle." Sally Hawkins was great, but my favorite, by far, was June Squibb. I think her performance rivaled any performance in any film in 2013. For the record, I am picking her in what would be a huge upset, but in all likelihood, Lupita Nyong'o is going to win. She seems to be everyone's new darling.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
I saw none of them. Everyone says "Frozen" will win, so I'll agree.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
If "The Great Gatsby" can't win this one, it has less than zero value.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Gravity" would appear to be a lock.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
"The Great Gatsby" captures its second and final award.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"The Act of Killing" is probably my favorite film of any kind in 2013, so it better win, but I did not see two of the nominees.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
"Gravity" continues piling up technical awards.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Gravity" again. Sorry.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Frozen" ices the competition.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Well, let's see. Who hasn't gotten a nod yet? I know. Let's go with "Gravity."
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This is a fascinating one to me. I expect "12 Years a Slave" to take it, but "The Wolf of Wall Street" and "Philomena" are legit possibilities.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Blue Jasmine" deserves it, but won't get it. It's a bad year to be Woody Allen. All of the others are good, but "Her" stands out as the most unique, so even though I did not really care for it, I'll go with "Her."
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Anyone of the five nominees could win, but the onslaught of awards for "Gravity" might be enough to push Cuaron over the top.
BEST PICTURE
If it were up to me, I would vote for "Blue Jasmine," but it is not nominated. "American Hustle" has a ton of nominations, but I could not stand it. From my previous picks it would appear obvious that "Gravity" would be my choice, but it's not. It's a spectacular demonstration of technical skills but that is not enough. I think the real contenders are "Dallas Buyers Club," "12 Years a Slave," and "The Wolf of Wall Street," and I will opt for "12 Years a Slave," thinking this might be an attempt for the academy to pay homage to the horrors of slavery in America, but who knows what the voters are really thinking. We will find out, though.
Check back on Monday to see how I did. And no, I won't subsidize your losses if you take my picks and lose. But if you win, I'll happily accept tips at the usual address.
