Steven Spielberg is holding a strong hand with his array of nominations for the story of Honest Abe, but will that translate into a Best Picture trophy? Robert De Niro is back, too, seeking his first win since "Raging Bull". How could so much time have passed? Can Ben Affleck win it despite his not getting a nomination for Best Director?
These are only some of the questions that will be answered during Oscar's big night. If you don't want to wait until then, take a peek at what will most likely transpire.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln - Dave's pick
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
It is really tough to see Daniel Day-Lewis losing this. He's a respected actor and he does a great job. Personally, I thought Phoenix gave the lead male performance of the year, elevating a clunky film to decency. Would love to see this upset but it is highly unlikely.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - Dave's pick
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
The old vet gets the brass ring. Yeah, I know, this could be one of three nominees. In this case, I'm going with Mr. Jones. It's a weak vote. Not that he did a bad job at all. It's just that in a group as great as this, I don't think there was an especially magnificent performance among them. Arkin and De Niro have a shot at taking it. Two down and Honest Abe has got them both.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook - Dave's pick
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Everyone says it will be Ms. Lawrence and that usually is enough to win it. Ms. Chastain looks to be the only possible upset winner.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables - Dave's pick
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
This one also looks easy on paper. It's time to honor Anne Hathaway. Adams and Field have no chance. I have no clue why Adams was even nominated. Hunt spent most of the film naked so she gets some points for that. Loved Weaver a few years back in "Animal Kingdom", but tough to see her winning this.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Brave - Dave's pick
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
My sources tell me it will be Brave, with Wreck-It Ralph as the most likely to pull off the upset.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Anna Karenina
Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, and Simon Bright, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson, Les Misérables - Dave's pick
David Gropman and Anna Pinnock, Life of Pi
Rick Carter and Jim Erickson, Lincoln
I tossed a 5-sided coin and it landed on "Les Misérables". Not really. It will probably win. I can't rule out "Anna Karenina", though.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina
Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi - Dave's pick
Janusz Kamiński, Lincoln
Roger Deakins, Skyfall
It paled in comparison to the book but you can't knock the cinematography in the "Life of Pi". "Skyfall" could sneak in for Mr. Bond, but probably won't.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina - Dave's pick
Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
Eiko Ishioka, Mirror Mirror
Colleen Atwood, Snow White and the Huntsman
If "Anna Karenina" is going to win anything, this has to be it. If it fails, look for "Les Misérables" to capture another.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man - Dave's pick
A truly outstanding group. You won't hear a peep from me no matter who comes out victorious. I'll take a sweet swing at the Sugar. It will be interesting to see the reaction if either "5 Broken Cameras" or "The Gatekeepers" wins. Both concern the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and both do not portray the Israelis as necessarily the good guys.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
William Goldenberg, Argo - Dave's pick
Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
Michael Kahn, Lincoln
Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers Silver Linings Playbook
Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty
Uh, oh. Here comes "Argo". Its main competition figures to come from the other extraordinary tale of recent warfare. I think that whichever of those two does not win has a very slim chance of capturing the grand prize. This could be a barometer worth checking.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi - Dave's pick
John Williams, Lincoln
Thomas Newman, Skyfall
My connected friends assure that this will go to the "Life of Pi". "Lincoln" has to be second choice because of the Oscar machine named John Williams.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Before My Time, Chasing Ice
Everybody Needs a Best Friend, Ted
Pi's Lullaby, Life of Pi
Skyfall, Skyfall - Dave's pick
Suddenly, Les Misérables
"Skyfall" is probably the best song, but I really don't care much for any of them. Suddenly could win because it comes from the only musical in the bunch. I hate this category every year, but as long as it exists, I've got to pick one.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn, Argo
Wylie Stateman, Django Unchained
Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton, Life of Pi
Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers, Skyfall
Paul N. J. Ottosson, Zero Dark Thirty - Dave's pick
Tough to see "Zero Dark Thirty" not running away with this one. "Skyfall" and "Life of Pi" are longshots. The other two aren't even that.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chris Terrio, Argo
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David Magee, Life of Pi
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook - Dave's pick
"Silver Linings Notebook" hits the tote board with what I deem to be the runaway best written film here. "Argo" is also very well written, though, so if there is an "Argo" stampede, this one could fall in line for Affleck. I am one of the few it seems that has not a clue why people liked "Beasts of the Southern Wild" so I declare that one to be dead last. Yeah, I know they don't announce the runner ups.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
John Gatins, Flight
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty - Dave's pick
"Zero Dark Thirty" could win. "Amour" is my favorite, but can't win. My guess is that the Academy tosses Quentin a bone, but I would not be surprised to see the salty language of "Django" work against him. This is a tough one.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Michel Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln - Dave's pick
What truly stands out here is the fact that Affleck is not one of the nominees. It makes this category and the Best Picture category a true mystery. Will the Academy break up these two awards? Is "Argo" out of the running for the top prize because of this? Who knows? We can be pretty certain that Haneke, Zeitlin, and Lee can't win. This leaves Russell and Mr. Spielberg. A victory by either puts their pic in the driver's seat. I'm going to gamble on Spielberg, but Russell is easily capable of the mild upset.
BEST PICTURE
Amour
Argo - Dave's pick
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Finally. We have arrived at the finish line. Toss out "Amour" (my personal favorite), "Beasts", "Django", the miserables, and "Pi". This leaves four films that could capture the brass ring, but I get paid the big bucks to pick the winner. I'm going to wager that despite being snubbed in the directing category, "Argo" will come trotting across the finish line. It's not a great film, but frankly, none of these are particularly wonderful. Forced to pick a longer shot, I'll venture a guess that "Silver" could bring home the gold.
